Published scientific studies or consensus statements from recognized climate science organizations

IMO2020 Sulfur Reduction Spurs Debate on 85% Cut and North Atlantic Warming

May 30, 2024, 06:14 PM

A significant reduction in sulfur emissions from the shipping industry due to the IMO2020 regulations has led to a complex debate within the scientific community. The regulations, which cut sulfur in marine shipping fuels by approximately 85%, aimed to improve human health by reducing air pollution. However, a new paper by Tianle Yuan and colleagues estimates that this reduction has contributed to slight atmospheric warming, a phenomenon some describe as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock. While some scientists argue that the reduction in ship-borne sulfate aerosols has played a role in the anomalous warmth of 2023, others, including Michael E. Mann, contest this, stating that the scientific evidence does not support such claims. The paper has faced criticism for potentially overstating the near-term warming impacts and for its approach to estimating the effect on global temperature. The warming effects have been observed particularly in the North Atlantic, with some describing the impact as substantial prompt heating.