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Market
Future Actions of TikTok Creators if US Ban is Upheld by Mid-2025
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Creators migrate to other platforms • 25%
Creators cease online activity • 25%
Creators engage in further legal actions • 25%
Other (e.g., international expansion) • 25%
Public statements from creators or major social media news outlets
Story
Eight TikTok Creators Sue U.S. Government Over First Amendment Violation in Ban Law
May 15, 2024, 12:00 AM
Eight TikTok content creators have filed a lawsuit against the U.S. federal government, challenging a new law that mandates the sale or ban of the popular video-sharing app. The creators argue that the law, signed by President Joe Biden, violates their First Amendment rights. The law requires TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its U.S. operations by January 19 or face a ban. This legal action follows a similar lawsuit filed by TikTok itself last week. The creators, who rely on the platform for various purposes including self-expression, advocacy, and livelihood, contend that national security claims should not override constitutional rights. The lawsuit was filed on May 7, following an April foreign aid package. Legal experts Nick Frisch and Dan Wang have commented on the broader implications of the ban. The creators are represented by the law firm Davis Wright Tremaine.
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Change in data policies • 25%
No change in policies • 25%
Increase in lobbying efforts • 25%
Public advocacy against similar laws • 25%
Increase in user base • 25%
Decrease in user base • 25%
No significant change • 25%
TikTok banned, no U.S. user base • 25%
Banned • 33%
Restricted Use • 34%
No Change • 33%
Complete ban • 33%
Forced sale • 33%
No action taken • 33%
No significant international reaction • 34%
Economic or trade measures against the U.S. • 33%
Supportive statements or actions from other countries • 33%
Increase in global user base • 25%
Decrease in global user base • 25%
No significant change in global user base • 25%
Shift in user demographics • 25%
Support TikTok • 25%
Oppose TikTok • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Collaborate on a solution • 25%
Continues operation under new ownership • 33%
Ceases operations • 33%
Operates with significant restrictions • 34%
Enforcement of sale • 33%
Ban without sale • 33%
No action taken • 34%
Lawsuits filed against TikTok • 33%
Fines imposed on TikTok • 33%
No legal actions taken • 34%