Loading...
Market
First animal species with confirmed human-to-animal H5N1 transmission in US by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Cats • 25%
Pigs • 25%
Seals • 25%
Other • 25%
CDC or USDA reports confirming human-to-animal transmission
Story
H5N1 Bird Flu Nears Human Pandemic, Infects Mammals in California and Arizona
Dec 12, 2024, 01:09 PM
The H5N1 avian influenza virus, which has been circulating globally for several years, is now a significant concern due to its potential to trigger a human pandemic. Recent developments indicate that the virus is just one mutation away from being capable of human-to-human transmission. This strain, known as clade 2.3.4.4b, has already infected a wide range of mammals, including seals, pigs, cows, and cats, and has been detected in humans. In the United States, the virus has been found in dairy herds, with the USDA reporting 58 new infected herds in California, bringing the state's total to 617 and the national total to 832 herds across 16 states. Additionally, cases of H5N1 have been reported in cats at an Arizona zoo, with five animals succumbing to the disease.
View original story
Similar markets
Dogs • 25%
Cattle • 25%
Zoo Animals • 25%
Other • 25%
Pigs • 25%
Turkeys • 25%
Chickens • 25%
Other • 25%
Big Cats (e.g., lions, tigers) • 25%
Primates • 25%
Birds • 25%
Other • 25%
Dairy cows • 25%
Cats • 25%
Horses • 25%
Other • 25%
Raw milk consumption • 25%
Direct contact with infected birds • 25%
Human-to-human transmission • 25%
Other • 25%
Poultry • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Domestic cats • 25%
Other • 25%
Poultry • 25%
Cattle • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Other • 25%
Birds • 33%
Cows • 33%
Pets (Cats/Dogs) • 33%
Cats • 25%
Dogs • 25%
Birds • 25%
Other • 25%
Wild birds • 25%
Domestic poultry • 25%
Mammals • 25%
No source identified • 25%