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Federal Reserve major regulatory decision announced by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Federal Reserve announcements or credible financial news outlets
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Michael Barr to Step Down as Fed's Vice Chair for Supervision on February 28, 2025, Avoiding Clash with Trump
Jan 6, 2025, 04:02 PM
Michael Barr, the Federal Reserve's vice chair for supervision, has announced his intention to step down from his role effective February 28, 2025. Barr will continue to serve as a governor on the Federal Reserve Board until his term expires in January 2032. His decision to resign from the vice chair position comes amid speculation that advisers to President-elect Donald Trump had considered demoting him. Barr's departure is seen as a move to avoid potential conflict with the incoming administration, which may seek to appoint more bank-friendly regulators. The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will not make major decisions on rules and regulations until a successor is named, as it continues to revise the Basel endgame rules, which have faced industry opposition.
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Yes • 50%
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Make tests public • 25%
No change • 25%
Other action • 25%
Modify tests • 25%
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Yes • 50%
Decrease • 25%
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New framework introduced • 25%
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Tether • 25%
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