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Market
EU response to U.S. trade ultimatum by June 30, 2025
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Complies with U.S. demands • 25%
Negotiates terms • 25%
Retaliates with counter-tariffs • 25%
Ignores ultimatum • 25%
Official statements from the European Union or credible news sources
Story
President-elect Trump Warns EU to Reduce Trade Deficit by Buying U.S. Oil and Gas or Face Tariffs
Dec 20, 2024, 11:59 AM
President-elect Donald Trump has warned the European Union that it must reduce its trade deficit with the United States by making large-scale purchases of American oil and gas or face tariffs. In a message posted on Truth Social, Trump stated, "I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large-scale purchase of our oil and gas. Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!" The ultimatum suggests a potential trade confrontation if the EU does not comply with his demands.
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Increase US energy imports • 25%
Negotiate alternative trade terms • 25%
File a WTO complaint • 25%
Do nothing • 25%
Increase imports significantly • 25%
Negotiate a trade deal • 25%
Impose counter-tariffs • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase US oil and gas imports • 25%
Impose retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Negotiate a trade agreement • 25%
Take no immediate action • 25%
EU wins case • 25%
U.S. wins case • 25%
Case settled mutually • 25%
Case withdrawn • 25%
