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Market
AI enables universal retirement by 2030?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Public policy changes or major economic reports indicating a shift towards universal retirement driven by AI
Story
Elon Musk Predicts AI Will Outperform 80% of Doctors in Cognitive Tasks Within 3-4 Years, Enabling Universal Retirement
Jan 9, 2025, 04:45 AM
Elon Musk has asserted that artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly advancing, stating that it is already outperforming over 80% of doctors in medical exams and excelling in radiography diagnostics compared to seasoned experts. In a recent discussion, Musk emphasized that AI will be capable of performing any cognitive task within the next three to four years, raising questions about the future roles of humans. He expressed optimism about the potential for a 'Golden Age' driven by AI and robotics, which he believes will elevate living standards beyond current expectations. Musk also hinted at Tesla's upcoming breakthroughs in full self-driving technology and the mass production timeline for its Optimus humanoid robot, suggesting that AI could facilitate universal retirement in the future.
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